Getting Behind Some Important Sports Betting Strategies
About Labouchere and Progressive Betting Systems
When it comes to scoring consistent profits in the field of sports betting, using a sound betting strategy holds as much importance as the ability of finding valuable odds. With all kinds of progressive betting systems coming into the market from time to time, there is one such system known as Labouchere betting system, which promises infinite wealth! However, is it really a good one to follow? Let’s give an academic answer to this question.
The Labouchere betting system is a type of progressive betting system as per which a sports bettor must continue placing bets until he accomplishes a certain winning amount. It has been traditionally applied in the casino game Roulette.
About Labouchere betting system in the field of sports betting
Although it is mainly applicable in roulette, Labouchere betting system can be easily extended and applied to the field of sports betting too. The steps involved in its application in sports betting are:
– Figure out the amount of money you wish to win. For instance, let’s aim at winning £ 100.
– Now, figure out how you’ll split that money. Let’s say, you opt for splitting it over five values of £ 10, £ 20, £ 40, £ 20 and £ 10.
– Place a wager that’ll win you the sum of your first and last numbers. So, if you’re using the decimal or European odds system and the odds as per it is 3 (+200 as per the money line on American system), you’ll need to pay £ 10, in order to win £ 20 (number arrived at by adding first and last numbers).
– Tick off the last and first number if you indeed win that bet. Else, simply add the bet amount to your new list of numbers. In this case, your new list will become (if you lose that bet): £ 10, £ 20, £ 40, £ 20, £ 10 and £ 10.
– Repeat step number 3 and 4 till the time you win the exact amount you were aiming for.
As explained above, the idea behind this strategy is taking off two items from the list whenever you score a win, but adding only one. This results in faster tick-offs, compared to additions. Let’s find out why it may not make much sense.
To use or not to use
Although they’re pretty handy to use, we’re not entirely in favour of using progressive betting methods. At core, they urge you to continue placing bets until you win a specific amount, without paying any attention to the amount you can afford to bet. So, assuming that you are placing bets on even odds, and witness a four losses streak, the subsequent bet amount would become £ 50, despite the fact that you’re already £ 100 down.
Unlike as in case of Kelly betting strategy, there is no attention paid to the portfolio size. It’s important to keep in mind that whenever you are indulging in sports betting, your key decisions should be based on whether the odds hold value or not, instead of the extent of money that can be won.
Fibonacci strategy is another similar type of progressive betting system, wherein you keep increasing your bet amounts, based on a Fibonacci sequence, in the following way: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and so on.
The academic answer to this question
Bringing in the academic perspective, three very good papers were submitted in the past that talk about usage of this strategy, for betting specifically on the draws. Archontakis and Osborne submitted a paper in the year 2007, wherein they stated that betting on the possibility of a draw using the Fibonacci strategy, at odds of 3, would deliver wins if the strategy is applied to the World Cup Finals.
However, no real data was used.
Another team of researchers focused specifically on the actual odds for the draws, and then simulated the results. They figured that if you’re using the Fibonacci betting strategy, you’d need to increase your stake up to 43 in the worst case scenario, and that is applicable to 95% of the cases.
Another researcher named Jiri Lahvicka debunked the Fibonacci theory, proving that all its tested versions eventually lead to monetary loss. The same can be said about any progressive betting system.
To conclude, although progressive betting systems are fun, they sound good only till the fun lasts!