Getting Behind Some Important Sports Betting Strategies
Why Past Data and Prediction Models Fail?
Whether it is financial advisers, sports bettors or betting tipsters, everyone uses the past data for predicting the future events. Let’s find out some of the pros and cons of this technique and understand why prediction models may fail sometimes. We’ll use the example of Leicester’s probability of winning the English Premier league in the year 2016 to understand this.
We all know that making predictions isn’t an easy business at all. It can often result in very extreme impressions. Either everything goes as per plan, with you being treated as someone having prophetic abilities, or something extreme may happen, far different from the reality, giving you the status of a quack!
Regardless of what may be the prediction, there’s a very high chance that the exact prediction you make may not occur, especially when there are several possible outcomes in the fray.
Using past data for predicting the future
Many sports bettors and betting tipsters use the generic or past data for predicting future outcomes. For instance, we’ve seen time and again that home teams perform better compared to the visiting teams. So, when you’re comparing two teams with equal strengths, you’d be better off backing the home team victory. Which half will witness more number of goals in that match? Ans. - The visiting team’s What are the England’s chances to win on penalties? Ans. - Zero!
We can obtain more insight using the measure of dispersion, for instance, standard deviation, as it tells us about the possible discrepancies from the best estimate.
However, if we were to depend solely on the past data, no one could have ever predicted the way Leicester Football Club performed in the 2015-16 English Premier League! Someone could have probably thought of Leicester having good chances by only looking at the last few games of the 2014-15 season, but let’s admit, even the most promising sports bettor or tipster wouldn’t have given them a Top 6 finish.
It is highly recommended that modelling is never done in a silo. It must incorporate the intricacies of every case. Please note, some models didn’t really apply when it came to Leicester’s ascent in 2016. However, we all know that Leicester has always been a 1 – 0 kind of winning team, even though that is counteracted by the strength of its defence.
Secondly, even if one were to use proper statistics, the market seems quite illogical. Everyone had been expecting Arsenal putting in plenty of pressure, and Leicester deflating eventually. Although that was a probable scenario, the ideal one was both staying on the exactly same course.
About the Middle Way
To conclude, although it is all right to use the past data and prediction models, you must always keep in mind that past performances are never a 100% indicator of the future results. Therefore, you should be creative, subjective as well judgemental when considering the case at hand. Whatever you be, just don’t end up being overly whimsical!